Compare prospects · Draftanomics

C.J. Prosise

RB · Notre Dame

21.9 yo · 6'0" · 220 lb

Kenyan Drake

RB · Alabama

22.3 yo · 6'1" · 210 lb

Derrick Henry

RB · Alabama

22.3 yo · 6'3" · 247 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

C.J. Prosise

Predicted pick

#48

range #46–#50

Bust probability

Consensus rank

#119

on 11 boards

Career arc

arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.

2nd-deal AAV

$4Mmodel

Kenyan Drake

Predicted pick

#173

range #171–#175

Bust probability

Consensus rank

#121

on 2 boards

Career arc

arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.

2nd-deal AAV

$7Mmodel

Derrick Henry

Predicted pick

#55

range #53–#57

Bust probability

Consensus rank

#44

on 16 boards

Career arc

arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.

2nd-deal AAV

$23Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

Prospects

C.J. Prosise· RB / WR / TE
Kenyan Drake· RB / WR / TE
Derrick Henry· RB / WR / TE

Axis leaders

ProductionC.J. Prosise0
AthleticismC.J. Prosise78
AgeKenyan Drake85
ConsensusDerrick Henry43
Per-play impact (PPA)C.J. Prosise50
Breakout ageC.J. Prosise50
WorkloadC.J. Prosise100
RAS × productionC.J. Prosise89

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.

C.J. Prosise

comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Kenyan Drake

comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Derrick Henry

comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

C.J. Prosise

Risks

Consensus skeptic
12 boards place him at mean rank #81; model has him #48 — a 33-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Negative per-play impact
PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.

Opportunities

Mid-major standout
School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.

Kenyan Drake

Risks

Negative per-play impact
PPA avg_all 0.123 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.

Opportunities

Consensus says higher
3 boards have him at mean rank #87; model has him #173 — a 86-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Derrick Henry

Risks

Negative per-play impact
PPA avg_all 0.213 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.

Opportunities

Breakout production arc
Career trajectory in rushing yards: 382 → 990 → 2219. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

C.J. ProsiseKenyan DrakeDerrick Henry· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

C.J. Prosise

Draftanomics projects C.J. Prosise (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #46-#50, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 33 spots ahead of the room (board #48 vs consensus #81), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Kenyan Drake

Draftanomics projects Kenyan Drake (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #173 (range #171-#175, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. PPA avg_all 0.123 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #173 — a 86-spot markdown. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.

Derrick Henry

Draftanomics projects Derrick Henry (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #55 (range #53-#57, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 382 → 990 → 2219. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.213 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #55 sits within 10 spots of the room's #45 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.