3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Vannett (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #211 (range #209-#213, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #211 — a 124-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Thomas Duarte (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #205 (range #203-#207, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 214 → 540 → 872. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 40-yard dash of 4.72s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #126 and the model won't take him before #205 — a 80-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.72s) leads the case against.
+0.04 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.04 charting total career snaps