2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: 71-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 36 points lower and $10M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Graham Glasgow as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #49-#69, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 39 spots ahead of the room (board #59 vs consensus #98), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Austin Blythe as a mid-round flyer at #130 (range #123-#137, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 56% — elevated. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #130 and the room's #130 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 56% bust probability break ties on draft day.