3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Juston Burris (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #181 (range #167-#195, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 33 spots ahead of the room (board #181 vs consensus #214), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Prince Charles Iworah (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #217 (range #200-#234, wide band). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. School SP+ 10.8 (CONFERENCE USA). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 450 spots ahead of the room (board #217 vs consensus #667), and at a 21% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Harlan Miller (age 21.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #56-#90, wide band). Bust probability sits at 39% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #73 against a consensus #95 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 39% bust number says size it modestly.