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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
TE
Tyler Ervin
RB · San Jose St.
22.6 yo · 5'10" · 192 lb
CP
C.J. Prosise
RB · Notre Dame
21.9 yo · 6'0" · 220 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take C.J. Prosise over Tyler Ervin.

Decisive factor: 127-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tyler Ervin
Predicted pick
#175
range #173–#177
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#155
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
C.J. Prosise
Predicted pick
#48
range #46–#50
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#119
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tyler Ervin· RB / WR / TE
  • C.J. Prosise· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTyler Ervin0
  • AthleticismTyler Ervin93
  • AgeC.J. Prosise79
  • ConsensusTyler Ervin27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tyler Ervin50
  • Breakout ageTyler Ervin50
  • WorkloadTyler Ervin100
  • RAS × productionC.J. Prosise89

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Tyler Ervin
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
C.J. Prosise
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tyler Ervin
Risks
  • One-year wonder
    Production concentrated in one season: best 1601 rushing yards vs 4-season mean 674. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.166 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #128; model has him #175 — a 47-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
C.J. Prosise
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    12 boards place him at mean rank #81; model has him #48 — a 33-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Tyler ErvinC.J. Prosise· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tyler Ervin

Draftanomics projects Tyler Ervin (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #175 (range #173-#177, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Production concentrated in one season: best 1601 rushing yards vs 4-season mean 674. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #128 and the model won't take him before #175 — a 47-spot markdown. The discount is earned — one-year wonder leads the case against.

C.J. Prosise

Draftanomics projects C.J. Prosise (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #46-#50, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 33 spots ahead of the room (board #48 vs consensus #81), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.