3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Antonio Morrison (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #180-#200, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 39 spots ahead of the room (board #190 vs consensus #229), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Ioannidis (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #106-#140, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 34 spots ahead of the room (board #123 vs consensus #157), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Elandon Roberts (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #114 (range #97-#131, wide band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 576 spots ahead of the room (board #114 vs consensus #690), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.