3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Alex Lewis as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #68-#82, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #75 and the room's #74 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Willie Beavers as a mid-round flyer at #135 (range #125-#145, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #110 — don't pay sticker price. The 25-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Joe Haeg as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #71 (range #50-#92, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 56 spots ahead of the room (board #71 vs consensus #127), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.