3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Blake Martinez (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #109 (range #99-#119, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #109 sits within 10 spots of the room's #120 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Willie Henry (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #102 (range #95-#109, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #132 by BAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #102 sits within 3 spots of the room's #99 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Kamalei Correa (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #103 (range #93-#113, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #63 and the model won't take him before #103 — a 40-spot markdown. The 40-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.