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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
WH
Willie Henry
DT · Michigan
22.1 yo · 6'3" · 303 lb
MC
Maliek Collins
DT · Nebraska
21.1 yo · 6'2" · 311 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Maliek Collins over Willie Henry.

Decisive factor: 49-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 12 points lower and $6M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Willie Henry
Predicted pick
#102
range #46–#223
Bust probability
43%
Consensus rank
#171
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Maliek Collins
Predicted pick
#53
range #17–#186
Bust probability
30%
Consensus rank
#136
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Willie Henry· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Maliek Collins· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionWillie Henry50
  • AthleticismWillie Henry55
  • AgeMaliek Collins86
  • ConsensusWillie Henry21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Willie Henry50
  • Breakout ageWillie Henry50
  • WorkloadWillie Henry50
  • RAS × productionWillie Henry100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Willie Henry
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Maliek Collins
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Willie Henry
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Maliek Collins
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Willie HenryMaliek Collins· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Willie Henry

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.02 lowest board ranking

Maliek Collins

−0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.04 charting run def grade career avg; −0.03 charting yards per coverage snap career avg