3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kenneth Dixon (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #19 (range #17-#21, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 71% — scary. School SP+ 8.3 (SUN BELT). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.235 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 50 spots ahead of the room (board #19 vs consensus #69) — but size the bet for the 71% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Paul Perkins (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #64 (range #62-#66, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. PPA avg_all 0.232 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a value lean: #64 against a consensus #82 is a 18-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with negative per-play impact the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Howard (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #136 (range #134-#138, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #136 — a 66-spot markdown. The 66-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.