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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT)
JT
John Theus
OT · Georgia
— · 6'6" · 313 lb
SC
Shon Coleman
OT · Auburn
— · 6'5" · 307 lb
KM
Kyle Murphy
OT · Stanford
— · 6'6" · 305 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

John Theus
Predicted pick
#176
range #63–#260
Bust probability· rough estimate
21%
Consensus rank
#54
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Shon Coleman
Predicted pick
#36
range #1–#169
Bust probability· rough estimate
3%
Consensus rank
#85
on 12 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Kyle Murphy
Predicted pick
#111
range #37–#209
Bust probability· rough estimate
3%
Consensus rank
#100
on 3 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • John Theus· Offensive line
  • Shon Coleman· Offensive line
  • Kyle Murphy· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJohn Theus50
  • AthleticismShon Coleman63
  • AgeKyle Murphy80
  • ConsensusShon Coleman21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)John Theus50
  • Breakout ageJohn Theus50
  • WorkloadJohn Theus50
  • RAS × productionShon Coleman86

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
John Theus
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Shon Coleman
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kyle Murphy
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

John Theus
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shon Coleman
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kyle Murphy
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
John TheusShon ColemanKyle Murphy· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

John Theus

−0.06 charting total career snaps; −0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 HS recruit rating

Shon Coleman

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.02 charting gap run block grade

Kyle Murphy

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 HS recruit rating