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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
PP
Paul Perkins
RB · UCLA
21.4 yo · 5'10" · 208 lb
DH
Derrick Henry
RB · Alabama
22.3 yo · 6'3" · 247 lb
CP
C.J. Prosise
RB · Notre Dame
21.9 yo · 6'0" · 220 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Paul Perkins
Predicted pick
#64
range #62–#66
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#114
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Derrick Henry
Predicted pick
#55
range #53–#57
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#44
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$23Mmodel
C.J. Prosise
Predicted pick
#48
range #46–#50
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#119
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Paul Perkins· RB / WR / TE
  • Derrick Henry· RB / WR / TE
  • C.J. Prosise· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionPaul Perkins0
  • AthleticismC.J. Prosise78
  • AgeC.J. Prosise79
  • ConsensusDerrick Henry43
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Paul Perkins50
  • Breakout agePaul Perkins50
  • WorkloadPaul Perkins100
  • RAS × productionC.J. Prosise89

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Paul Perkins
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Derrick Henry
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
C.J. Prosise
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Paul Perkins
Risks
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.232 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Derrick Henry
Risks
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.213 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in rushing yards: 382 → 990 → 2219. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
C.J. Prosise
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    12 boards place him at mean rank #81; model has him #48 — a 33-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Paul PerkinsDerrick HenryC.J. Prosise· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Paul Perkins

Draftanomics projects Paul Perkins (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #64 (range #62-#66, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. PPA avg_all 0.232 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a value lean: #64 against a consensus #82 is a 18-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with negative per-play impact the tax on that edge.

Derrick Henry

Draftanomics projects Derrick Henry (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #55 (range #53-#57, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 382 → 990 → 2219. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.213 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #55 sits within 10 spots of the room's #45 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

C.J. Prosise

Draftanomics projects C.J. Prosise (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #46-#50, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 33 spots ahead of the room (board #48 vs consensus #81), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.