3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Shell as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #89 (range #82-#96, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 2% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 80 spots ahead of the room (board #89 vs consensus #168), and at a 2% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Shon Coleman as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #29-#43, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #36 vs consensus #72), and at a 3% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects John Theus as a Day 3 dart throw at #176 (range #169-#183, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. The call is a value lean: #176 against a consensus #202 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.