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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
JR
Jake Rudock
QB · Michigan
23.3 yo · — · —
CJ
Cardale Jones
QB · Ohio St.
23.6 yo · 6'5" · 253 lb
Tiebreaker
Low confidence — essentially tied
Truly tied on the model.

Jake Rudock and Cardale Jones project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jake Rudock
Predicted pick
#244
range #107–#259
Bust probability· rough estimate
32%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Cardale Jones
Predicted pick
#242
range #86–#241
Bust probability· rough estimate
29%
Consensus rank
#164
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jake Rudock· QB
  • Cardale Jones· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJake Rudock95
  • AthleticismJake Rudock43
  • AgeJake Rudock19
  • ConsensusCardale Jones3
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jake Rudock50
  • Breakout ageJake Rudock50
  • WorkloadJake Rudock50
  • RAS × productionJake Rudock0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jake Rudock
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Cardale Jones
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jake Rudock
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Cardale Jones
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jake RudockCardale Jones· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jake Rudock

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.04 age

Cardale Jones

−0.05 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting total career snaps