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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
JD
Jeff Driskel
QB · Louisiana Tech
23.0 yo · 6'4" · 234 lb
CK
Cody Kessler
QB · USC
23.0 yo · 6'1" · 220 lb
JB
Jacoby Brissett
QB · North Carolina St.
23.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jeff Driskel
Predicted pick
#237
range #235–#239
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Cody Kessler
Predicted pick
#246
range #244–#248
Bust probability· rough estimate
27%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Jacoby Brissett
Predicted pick
#251
range #249–#253
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
Consensus rank
#84
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$24Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jeff Driskel· QB
  • Cody Kessler· QB
  • Jacoby Brissett· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJeff Driskel0
  • AthleticismJeff Driskel100
  • AgeJeff Driskel16
  • ConsensusJeff Driskel21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jeff Driskel50
  • Breakout ageJeff Driskel50
  • WorkloadJeff Driskel50
  • RAS × productionJeff Driskel0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jeff Driskel
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Cody Kessler
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jacoby Brissett
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jeff Driskel
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #207 by SFO in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • One-year wonder
    Production concentrated in one season: best 4033 passing yards vs 4-season mean 1824. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 8.3 (SUN BELT). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Cody Kessler
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #209; model has him #246 — a 37-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Jacoby Brissett
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.212 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #90; model has him #251 — a 162-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in passing yards: 249 → 2606 → 2662. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jeff DriskelCody KesslerJacoby Brissett· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jeff Driskel

Draftanomics projects Jeff Driskel (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #237 (range #235-#239, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. School SP+ 8.3 (SUN BELT). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #207 by SFO in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 23 spots below the room's consensus #214 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

Cody Kessler

Draftanomics projects Cody Kessler (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #246 (range #244-#248, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #209 and the model won't take him before #246 — a 37-spot markdown. The 37-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Jacoby Brissett

Draftanomics projects Jacoby Brissett (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #249-#253, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Career trajectory in passing yards: 249 → 2606 → 2662. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #90 and the model won't take him before #251 — a 162-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.