3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kamu Grugier-Hill (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #127 (range #106-#148, wide band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #127 stands alone — and with bust risk at 3%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Woodard (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #122-#164, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #226 by JAX in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 252 spots ahead of the room (board #143 vs consensus #395) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Trevor Bates (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #121-#163, wide band). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 389 spots ahead of the room (board #142 vs consensus #531), and at a 43% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.