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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
DL
Devin Lucien
WR · Arizona St.
22.8 yo · — · —
CM
Chris Moore
WR · Cincinnati
22.9 yo · 6'1" · 206 lb
DA
Demarcus Ayers
WR · Houston
21.8 yo · 5'9" · 182 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Devin Lucien
Predicted pick
#249
range #93–#248
Bust probability
45%
Consensus rank
#152
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Chris Moore
Predicted pick
#187
range #46–#230
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#146
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Demarcus Ayers
Predicted pick
#207
range #124–#258
Bust probability
18%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Devin Lucien· RB / WR / TE
  • Chris Moore· RB / WR / TE
  • Demarcus Ayers· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDevin Lucien0
  • AthleticismDevin Lucien45
  • AgeDemarcus Ayers85
  • ConsensusDevin Lucien27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Devin Lucien50
  • Breakout ageDevin Lucien50
  • WorkloadDevin Lucien100
  • RAS × productionDevin Lucien0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Devin Lucien
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Chris Moore
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Demarcus Ayers
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Devin Lucien
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Chris Moore
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Demarcus Ayers
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Devin LucienChris MooreDemarcus Ayers· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Devin Lucien

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.02 age

Chris Moore

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.05 age

Demarcus Ayers

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age