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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
DW
Dwayne Washington
RB · Washington
22.0 yo · — · —
KR
Keenan Reynolds
RB · Navy
22.4 yo · — · —
WS
Wendell Smallwood
RB · West Virginia
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 208 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Dwayne Washington
Predicted pick
#226
range #224–#228
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Keenan Reynolds
Predicted pick
#227
range #225–#229
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Wendell Smallwood
Predicted pick
#195
range #193–#197
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Dwayne Washington· RB / WR / TE
  • Keenan Reynolds· RB / WR / TE
  • Wendell Smallwood· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDwayne Washington0
  • AthleticismDwayne Washington45
  • AgeKeenan Reynolds97
  • ConsensusWendell Smallwood27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Dwayne Washington50
  • Breakout ageDwayne Washington50
  • WorkloadDwayne Washington100
  • RAS × productionDwayne Washington0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Dwayne Washington
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Keenan Reynolds
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Wendell Smallwood
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Dwayne Washington
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #756; model has him #226 — a 530-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Keenan Reynolds
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #182 by BAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #335; model has him #227 — a 108-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 12.1 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Wendell Smallwood
Risks
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.268 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in rushing yards: 221 → 722 → 1519. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Dwayne WashingtonKeenan ReynoldsWendell Smallwood· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Dwayne Washington

Draftanomics projects Dwayne Washington (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #226 (range #224-#228, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 530 spots ahead of the room (board #226 vs consensus #756), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Keenan Reynolds

Draftanomics projects Keenan Reynolds (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #227 (range #225-#229, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. School SP+ 12.1 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #182 by BAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 108 spots ahead of the room (board #227 vs consensus #335) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Wendell Smallwood

Draftanomics projects Wendell Smallwood (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #195 (range #193-#197, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 221 → 722 → 1519. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.268 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #175 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.