3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Devin Fuller (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #232 (range #218-#246, wide band). Bust probability sits at 34% — real but not disqualifying. Drafted #238 by ATL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #232 stands alone — and with bust risk at 34%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Devin Lucien (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #249 (range #247-#251, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 45% — elevated. Drafted #225 by NWE in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #152 and the model won't take him before #249 — a 97-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Tyreek Hill (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #108-#150, wide band). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #129 stands alone — and with bust risk at 19%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.