2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: 77-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Trevor Bates (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #121-#163, wide band). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 389 spots ahead of the room (board #142 vs consensus #531), and at a 43% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Antwione Williams (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #219 (range #202-#236, wide band). Bust probability sits at 13% — low. School SP+ 7.3 (SUN BELT). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 305 spots ahead of the room (board #219 vs consensus #524), and at a 13% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.