2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: 60-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $7M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Austin Johnson (age 22.0 at draft) as a first-round pick at #30 (range #23-#37, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The call is a value lean: #30 against a consensus #43 is a 13-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Hassan Ridgeway (age 21.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #90 (range #83-#97, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #90 sits within 7 spots of the room's #83 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.