3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Austin Johnson (age 22.0 at draft) as a first-round pick at #30 (range #23-#37, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The call is a value lean: #30 against a consensus #43 is a 13-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects D.J. Reader (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #189-#203, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #122 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 74-spot markdown. The 74-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Vincent Valentine (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #209 (range #199-#219, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 23 spots below the room's consensus #186 — don't pay sticker price. A 55% bust probability backs the 23-spot markdown.