3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Derrick Henry (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #55 (range #53-#57, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 382 → 990 → 2219. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.213 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #55 sits within 10 spots of the room's #45 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ezekiel Elliott (age 20.8 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #4 (range #2-#6, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #4 sits within 10 spots of the room's #14 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects C.J. Prosise (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #46-#50, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 33 spots ahead of the room (board #48 vs consensus #81), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.