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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB)
SC
Su'a Cravens
OLB · USC
20.8 yo · 6'1" · 226 lb
JS
Jaylon Smith
OLB · Notre Dame
20.9 yo · 6'2" · 223 lb
AW
Aaron Wallace
OLB · UCLA
22.8 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Su'a Cravens
Predicted pick
#28
range #10–#71
Bust probability
25%
Consensus rank
#40
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Jaylon Smith
Predicted pick
#16
range #1–#59
Bust probability
21%
Consensus rank
#34
on 17 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Aaron Wallace
Predicted pick
#188
range #105–#239
Bust probability
42%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Su'a Cravens· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jaylon Smith· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Aaron Wallace· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSu'a Cravens50
  • AthleticismSu'a Cravens55
  • AgeJaylon Smith84
  • ConsensusSu'a Cravens44
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Su'a Cravens50
  • Breakout ageSu'a Cravens50
  • WorkloadSu'a Cravens50
  • RAS × productionSu'a Cravens100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Su'a Cravens
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jaylon Smith
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Aaron Wallace
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Su'a Cravens
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jaylon Smith
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Aaron Wallace
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Su'a CravensJaylon SmithAaron Wallace· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Su'a Cravens

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.04 charting coverage grade career avg

Jaylon Smith

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.03 charting coverage grade career avg

Aaron Wallace

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.01 conference strength