3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Parker Ehinger as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #134-#154, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 69% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #144 — a 32-spot markdown. A 69% bust probability backs the 32-spot markdown.
Draftanomics projects Joe Dahl as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #172-#192, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #110 and the model won't take him before #182 — a 72-spot markdown. The 72-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Joe Thuney as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #84-#112, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #98 sits within 3 spots of the room's #95 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.