3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Kwiatkoski (age 22.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #92 (range #85-#99, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #92 sits within 4 spots of the room's #88 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Nick Vigil (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #41 (range #31-#51, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 69 spots ahead of the room (board #41 vs consensus #110), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Steven Daniels (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #146 (range #132-#160, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #232 by WAS in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 92 spots ahead of the room (board #146 vs consensus #238) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.