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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
MI
Matthew Ioannidis
DT · Temple
22.3 yo · — · —
QJ
Quinton Jefferson
DT · Maryland
23.1 yo · 6'4" · 291 lb
DO
David Onyemata
DT · Manitoba
23.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matthew Ioannidis
Projected range
Rounds 3-6
half went picks 91-192
Bust probability
33%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8.9M-$13.6Mmodel
Quinton Jefferson
Projected range
Rounds 4-6
half went picks 115-207
Bust probability
41%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7.1M-$10.9Mmodel
David Onyemata
Projected range
Rounds 4-6
half went picks 143-225
Bust probability
25%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11.5M-$17.6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matthew Ioannidis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Quinton Jefferson· EDGE / DL / LB
  • David Onyemata· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatthew Ioannidis50
  • AthleticismMatthew Ioannidis55
  • AgeMatthew Ioannidis91
  • ConsensusMatthew Ioannidis5
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matthew Ioannidis50
  • Breakout ageMatthew Ioannidis50
  • WorkloadMatthew Ioannidis50
  • RAS × productionMatthew Ioannidis100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Matthew Ioannidis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Quinton Jefferson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
David Onyemata
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matthew Ioannidis
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Quinton Jefferson
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
David Onyemata
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Matthew IoannidisQuinton JeffersonDavid Onyemata· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matthew Ioannidis

Draftanomics projects Matthew Ioannidis (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #106-#140, wide band). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #123 stands alone — and with bust risk at 33%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Quinton Jefferson

Draftanomics projects Quinton Jefferson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #159-#179, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 41% — real but not disqualifying. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #169 stands alone — and with bust risk at 41%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

David Onyemata

Draftanomics projects David Onyemata (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #206 (range #185-#227, wide band). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #206 stands alone — and with bust risk at 25%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.