3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Ioannidis (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #106-#140, wide band). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #123 stands alone — and with bust risk at 33%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Quinton Jefferson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #159-#179, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 41% — real but not disqualifying. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #169 stands alone — and with bust risk at 41%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects David Onyemata (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #206 (range #185-#227, wide band). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #206 stands alone — and with bust risk at 25%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.