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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT, ILB, OLB)
MI
Matthew Ioannidis
DT · Temple
22.3 yo · — · —
ER
Elandon Roberts
ILB · Houston
22.0 yo · — · —
KG
Kamu Grugier-Hill
OLB · Eastern Illinois
21.9 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matthew Ioannidis
Predicted pick
#123
range #106–#140
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Elandon Roberts
Predicted pick
#114
range #97–#131
Bust probability
7%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Kamu Grugier-Hill
Predicted pick
#127
range #106–#148
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matthew Ioannidis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Elandon Roberts· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Kamu Grugier-Hill· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatthew Ioannidis50
  • AthleticismMatthew Ioannidis55
  • AgeKamu Grugier-Hill100
  • ConsensusElandon Roberts6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matthew Ioannidis50
  • Breakout ageMatthew Ioannidis50
  • WorkloadMatthew Ioannidis50
  • RAS × productionMatthew Ioannidis100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Matthew Ioannidis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Elandon Roberts
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kamu Grugier-Hill
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matthew Ioannidis
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #157; model has him #123 — a 34-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Elandon Roberts
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #690; model has him #114 — a 576-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kamu Grugier-Hill
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Matthew IoannidisElandon RobertsKamu Grugier-Hill· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matthew Ioannidis

Draftanomics projects Matthew Ioannidis (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #106-#140, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 34 spots ahead of the room (board #123 vs consensus #157), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Elandon Roberts

Draftanomics projects Elandon Roberts (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #114 (range #97-#131, wide band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 576 spots ahead of the room (board #114 vs consensus #690), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Kamu Grugier-Hill

Draftanomics projects Kamu Grugier-Hill (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #127 (range #106-#148, wide band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #127 stands alone — and with bust risk at 3%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.