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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
MI
Matthew Ioannidis
DT · Temple
22.3 yo · — · —
MC
Maliek Collins
DT · Nebraska
21.1 yo · 6'2" · 311 lb
HR
Hassan Ridgeway
DT · Texas
21.5 yo · 6'3" · 303 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matthew Ioannidis
Predicted pick
#123
range #106–#140
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Maliek Collins
Predicted pick
#53
range #43–#63
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#136
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
Hassan Ridgeway
Predicted pick
#90
range #83–#97
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#132
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matthew Ioannidis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Maliek Collins· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Hassan Ridgeway· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatthew Ioannidis50
  • AthleticismMatthew Ioannidis55
  • AgeMatthew Ioannidis91
  • ConsensusMaliek Collins21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matthew Ioannidis50
  • Breakout ageMatthew Ioannidis50
  • WorkloadMatthew Ioannidis50
  • RAS × productionMatthew Ioannidis100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Matthew Ioannidis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Maliek Collins
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Hassan Ridgeway
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matthew Ioannidis
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #157; model has him #123 — a 34-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Maliek Collins
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    12 boards place him at mean rank #85; model has him #53 — a 32-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Hassan Ridgeway
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Matthew IoannidisMaliek CollinsHassan Ridgeway· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matthew Ioannidis

Draftanomics projects Matthew Ioannidis (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #106-#140, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 34 spots ahead of the room (board #123 vs consensus #157), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Maliek Collins

Draftanomics projects Maliek Collins (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #53 (range #43-#63, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #53 vs consensus #85), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Hassan Ridgeway

Draftanomics projects Hassan Ridgeway (age 21.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #90 (range #83-#97, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #90 sits within 7 spots of the room's #83 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.