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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
WS
Wendell Smallwood
RB · West Virginia
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 208 lb
JH
Jordan Howard
RB · Indiana
21.5 yo · 6'0" · 230 lb
KR
Keenan Reynolds
RB · Navy
22.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Wendell Smallwood
Predicted pick
#195
range #112–#246
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Jordan Howard
Predicted pick
#136
range #56–#244
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
#76
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Keenan Reynolds
Predicted pick
#227
range #90–#242
Bust probability
50%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Wendell Smallwood· RB / WR / TE
  • Jordan Howard· RB / WR / TE
  • Keenan Reynolds· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionWendell Smallwood0
  • AthleticismWendell Smallwood45
  • AgeKeenan Reynolds97
  • ConsensusWendell Smallwood27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Wendell Smallwood50
  • Breakout ageWendell Smallwood50
  • WorkloadWendell Smallwood100
  • RAS × productionWendell Smallwood0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Wendell Smallwood
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jordan Howard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Keenan Reynolds
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Wendell Smallwood
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jordan Howard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Keenan Reynolds
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Wendell SmallwoodJordan HowardKeenan Reynolds· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Wendell Smallwood

−0.06 charting total career snaps; −0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 production trajectory

Jordan Howard

−0.06 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.02 age

Keenan Reynolds

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.04 age