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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
WS
Wendell Smallwood
RB · West Virginia
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 208 lb
DJ
Darius Jackson
RB · Eastern Michigan
22.4 yo · — · —
TE
Tyler Ervin
RB · San Jose St.
22.6 yo · 5'10" · 192 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Wendell Smallwood
Predicted pick
#195
range #112–#246
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Darius Jackson
Predicted pick
#248
range #111–#263
Bust probability
38%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Tyler Ervin
Predicted pick
#175
range #72–#220
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
#155
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Wendell Smallwood· RB / WR / TE
  • Darius Jackson· RB / WR / TE
  • Tyler Ervin· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionWendell Smallwood0
  • AthleticismTyler Ervin93
  • AgeWendell Smallwood84
  • ConsensusWendell Smallwood27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Wendell Smallwood50
  • Breakout ageWendell Smallwood50
  • WorkloadWendell Smallwood100
  • RAS × productionTyler Ervin73

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Wendell Smallwood
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Darius Jackson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tyler Ervin
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Wendell Smallwood
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Darius Jackson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tyler Ervin
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Wendell SmallwoodDarius JacksonTyler Ervin· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Wendell Smallwood

−0.06 charting total career snaps; −0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 production trajectory

Darius Jackson

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.02 HS recruit rating

Tyler Ervin

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.04 athleticism (combine)