3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kevin Hogan (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #250-#254, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. Career trajectory in passing yards: 1096 → 2630 → 2792 → 2867. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #120 and the model won't take him before #252 — a 132-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Cody Kessler (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #246 (range #244-#248, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #209 and the model won't take him before #246 — a 37-spot markdown. The 37-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Jake Rudock (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #244 (range #242-#246, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #191 by DET in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 92 spots ahead of the room (board #244 vs consensus #336) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.