3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kevin Hogan (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #250-#254, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. Career trajectory in passing yards: 1096 → 2630 → 2792 → 2867. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #120 and the model won't take him before #252 — a 132-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Paxton Lynch (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #35 (range #33-#37, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 8.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #35 and the room's #34 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Allen (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #238 (range #236-#240, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Career trajectory in passing yards: 186 → 1552 → 2285 → 3440. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Drafted #201 by JAX in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #238 — a 144-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.