3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Devante Bond (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #163 (range #149-#177, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #183 by TAM in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 148 spots ahead of the room (board #163 vs consensus #311) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects B.J. Goodson (age 22.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #70 (range #63-#77, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a value lean: #70 against a consensus #82 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Deion Jones (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #100-#114, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #83 — don't pay sticker price. The 24-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.