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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB)
AW
Aaron Wallace
OLB · UCLA
22.8 yo · — · —
DC
De'Vondre Campbell
OLB · Minnesota
22.8 yo · 6'4" · 232 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take De'Vondre Campbell over Aaron Wallace.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 40 points lower. Reinforced by 62-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Aaron Wallace
Predicted pick
#188
range #174–#202
Bust probability
48%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
De'Vondre Campbell
Predicted pick
#126
range #112–#140
Bust probability
7%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Aaron Wallace· EDGE / DL / LB
  • De'Vondre Campbell· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAaron Wallace50
  • AthleticismAaron Wallace55
  • AgeAaron Wallace53
  • ConsensusAaron Wallace6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Aaron Wallace50
  • Breakout ageAaron Wallace50
  • WorkloadAaron Wallace50
  • RAS × productionAaron Wallace100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Aaron Wallace
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
De'Vondre Campbell
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Aaron Wallace
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #767; model has him #188 — a 579-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
De'Vondre Campbell
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #161; model has him #126 — a 35-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Aaron WallaceDe'Vondre Campbell· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Aaron Wallace

Draftanomics projects Aaron Wallace (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #188 (range #174-#202, wide band). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 579 spots ahead of the room (board #188 vs consensus #767) — but size the bet for the 48% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

De'Vondre Campbell

Draftanomics projects De'Vondre Campbell (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #126 (range #112-#140, wide band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 35 spots ahead of the room (board #126 vs consensus #161), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.