3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Woodard (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #122-#164, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #226 by JAX in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 252 spots ahead of the room (board #143 vs consensus #395) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Yannick Ngakoue (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #165 (range #155-#175, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #122 and the model won't take him before #165 — a 44-spot markdown. The 44-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Dean Lowry (age 21.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #99 (range #92-#106, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 90 spots ahead of the room (board #99 vs consensus #188), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.