3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Daniel Braverman (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #157 (range #155-#159, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 135 → 997 → 1367. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #125 and the model won't take him before #157 — a 32-spot markdown. The 32-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Rashard Higgins (age 21.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #84-#88, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #86 and the room's #86 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Chris Moore (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #187 (range #185-#189, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 113 → 645 → 673 → 870. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #68 and the model won't take him before #187 — a 120-spot markdown. The 120-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.