3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects A'Shawn Robinson (age 21.1 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #2 (range #1-#12, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The call is a value lean: #2 against a consensus #22 is a 20-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 8% bust number says size it modestly.
Draftanomics projects Andrew Billings (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #43 (range #33-#53, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #122 by CIN in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #28 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kenny Clark (age 20.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #20 (range #10-#30, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a value lean: #20 against a consensus #32 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.