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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
CC
Connor Cook
QB · Michigan St.
23.2 yo · 6'4" · 217 lb
CJ
Cardale Jones
QB · Ohio St.
23.6 yo · 6'5" · 253 lb
KH
Kevin Hogan
QB · Stanford
23.5 yo · 6'3" · 218 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Connor Cook
Predicted pick
#185
range #44–#228
Bust probability· rough estimate
26%
Consensus rank
#55
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Cardale Jones
Predicted pick
#242
range #86–#241
Bust probability· rough estimate
29%
Consensus rank
#164
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Kevin Hogan
Predicted pick
#252
range #96–#251
Bust probability· rough estimate
26%
Consensus rank
#37
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Connor Cook· QB
  • Cardale Jones· QB
  • Kevin Hogan· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionConnor Cook0
  • AthleticismConnor Cook43
  • AgeConnor Cook28
  • ConsensusConnor Cook53
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Connor Cook50
  • Breakout ageConnor Cook50
  • WorkloadConnor Cook50
  • RAS × productionKevin Hogan100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Connor Cook
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Cardale Jones
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kevin Hogan
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Connor Cook
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Cardale Jones
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kevin Hogan
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Connor CookCardale JonesKevin Hogan· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Connor Cook

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 age

Cardale Jones

−0.05 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting total career snaps

Kevin Hogan

−0.06 age; −0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.05 charting total career snaps