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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
CW
Carson Wentz
QB · North Dakota St.
23.3 yo · — · —
NS
Nate Sudfeld
QB · Indiana
22.6 yo · 6'6" · 234 lb
DP
Dak Prescott
QB · Mississippi St.
22.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Carson Wentz
Predicted pick
#13
range #1–#56
Bust probability· rough estimate
16%
Consensus rank
#16
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$46Mmodel
Nate Sudfeld
Predicted pick
#243
range #106–#258
Bust probability· rough estimate
31%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Dak Prescott
Predicted pick
#234
range #78–#233
Bust probability· rough estimate
25%
Consensus rank
#64
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$45Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Carson Wentz· QB
  • Nate Sudfeld· QB
  • Dak Prescott· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDak Prescott50
  • AthleticismCarson Wentz43
  • AgeNate Sudfeld76
  • ConsensusCarson Wentz88
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Carson Wentz50
  • Breakout ageCarson Wentz50
  • WorkloadCarson Wentz50
  • RAS × productionCarson Wentz0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Carson Wentz
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Nate Sudfeld
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dak Prescott
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Carson Wentz
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Nate Sudfeld
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dak Prescott
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Carson WentzNate SudfeldDak Prescott· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Carson Wentz

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.06 scout consensus; −0.04 age

Nate Sudfeld

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 athleticism (combine)

Dak Prescott

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 position role purity