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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
NS
Noah Spence
EDGE · Eastern Kentucky
22.3 yo · — · —
DB
DeForest Buckner
EDGE · Oregon
22.1 yo · 6'7" · 291 lb
JW
Jihad Ward
EDGE · Illinois
22.0 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Noah Spence
Predicted pick
#37
range #11–#141
Bust probability
14%
Consensus rank
#20
on 19 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
DeForest Buckner
Predicted pick
#34
range #1–#167
Bust probability
8%
Consensus rank
#5
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$25Mmodel
Jihad Ward
Predicted pick
#91
range #44–#209
Bust probability
13%
Consensus rank
#103
on 6 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Noah Spence· EDGE / DL / LB
  • DeForest Buckner· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jihad Ward· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionNoah Spence50
  • AthleticismNoah Spence55
  • AgeJihad Ward93
  • ConsensusDeForest Buckner100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Noah Spence50
  • Breakout ageNoah Spence50
  • WorkloadNoah Spence50
  • RAS × productionNoah Spence100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Noah Spence
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
DeForest Buckner
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jihad Ward
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Noah Spence
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
DeForest Buckner
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jihad Ward
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Noah SpenceDeForest BucknerJihad Ward· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Noah Spence

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.04 HS recruit rating; +0.03 boards with him top-50

DeForest Buckner

+0.07 scout consensus; +0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.04 HS recruit rating

Jihad Ward

−0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age