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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
CH
Christian Hackenberg
QB · Penn St.
21.2 yo · 6'4" · 223 lb
JR
Jake Rudock
QB · Michigan
23.3 yo · — · —
CC
Connor Cook
QB · Michigan St.
23.2 yo · 6'4" · 217 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Christian Hackenberg
Predicted pick
#132
range #52–#240
Bust probability· rough estimate
29%
Consensus rank
#72
on 3 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Jake Rudock
Predicted pick
#244
range #107–#259
Bust probability· rough estimate
32%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Connor Cook
Predicted pick
#185
range #44–#228
Bust probability· rough estimate
26%
Consensus rank
#55
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Christian Hackenberg· QB
  • Jake Rudock· QB
  • Connor Cook· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionChristian Hackenberg100
  • AthleticismChristian Hackenberg43
  • AgeChristian Hackenberg100
  • ConsensusConnor Cook53
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Christian Hackenberg50
  • Breakout ageChristian Hackenberg50
  • WorkloadChristian Hackenberg50
  • RAS × productionChristian Hackenberg0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Christian Hackenberg
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jake Rudock
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Connor Cook
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Christian Hackenberg
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jake Rudock
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Connor Cook
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Christian HackenbergJake RudockConnor Cook· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Christian Hackenberg

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.04 age

Jake Rudock

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.04 age

Connor Cook

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 age