3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kolby Listenbee (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #219-#223, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 70% — scary. Drafted #192 by BUF in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #111 and the model won't take him before #221 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Payton (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #228 (range #226-#230, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 202 → 440 → 954 → 1106. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #228 — a 148-spot markdown. The 148-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Malcolm Mitchell (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #208 (range #206-#210, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #96 and the model won't take him before #208 — a 112-spot markdown. A 66% bust probability backs the 112-spot markdown.