3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Martin as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #76 (range #66-#86, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #76 sits within 4 spots of the room's #72 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Donavon Clark as a Day 3 dart throw at #177 (range #163-#191, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 532 spots ahead of the room (board #177 vs consensus #709) — but size the bet for the 78% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Spencer Drango as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #85 (range #75-#95, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #85 against a consensus #107 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.