3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Payton (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #228 (range #226-#230, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 202 → 440 → 954 → 1106. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #228 — a 148-spot markdown. The 148-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Sterling Shepard (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #63 (range #61-#65, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #45 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Corey Coleman (age 21.8 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #8-#12, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 527 → 1119 → 1363. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a value lean: #10 against a consensus #32 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.