3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Payton (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #228 (range #226-#230, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 202 → 440 → 954 → 1106. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #228 — a 148-spot markdown. The 148-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Malcolm Mitchell (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #208 (range #206-#210, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #96 and the model won't take him before #208 — a 112-spot markdown. A 66% bust probability backs the 112-spot markdown.
Draftanomics projects Devin Fuller (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #232 (range #218-#246, wide band). Bust probability sits at 73% — scary. Drafted #238 by ATL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 422 spots ahead of the room (board #232 vs consensus #654) — but size the bet for the 73% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.