3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tyreek Hill (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #108-#150, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 642 spots ahead of the room (board #129 vs consensus #771), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Moritz Boehringer (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #140 (range #119-#161, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #180 by MIN in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 161 spots ahead of the room (board #140 vs consensus #301) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Demarcus Ayers (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #205-#209, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 130 → 335 → 1222. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 40-yard dash of 4.72s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a value lean: #207 against a consensus #232 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with wr slow 40 (4.72s) the tax on that edge.