3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jihad Ward (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #91 (range #77-#105, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #73 — don't pay sticker price. The 18-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Ronald Blair (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #102-#136, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #119 sits within 9 spots of the room's #110 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Yannick Ngakoue (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #165 (range #155-#175, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #122 and the model won't take him before #165 — a 44-spot markdown. The 44-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.