3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Reggie Ragland (age 22.6 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #7 (range #1-#14, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #41 by BUF in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #7 sits within 12 spots of the room's #19 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Joshua Perry (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #47 (range #40-#54, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The call is a value lean: #47 against a consensus #61 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 48% bust number says size it modestly.
Draftanomics projects Scooby Wright III (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #139-#159, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #85 and the model won't take him before #149 — a 64-spot markdown. A 55% bust probability backs the 64-spot markdown.