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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
KD
Kevin Dodd
EDGE · Clemson
23.8 yo · 6'5" · 277 lb
JW
Jonathan Woodard
EDGE · Central Arkansas
22.6 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Kevin Dodd over Jonathan Woodard.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 18 points lower. Reinforced by 26-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kevin Dodd
Predicted pick
#117
range #110–#124
Bust probability
48%
Consensus rank
#36
on 18 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Jonathan Woodard
Predicted pick
#143
range #122–#164
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kevin Dodd· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jonathan Woodard· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKevin Dodd50
  • AthleticismJonathan Woodard55
  • AgeJonathan Woodard81
  • ConsensusKevin Dodd21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kevin Dodd50
  • Breakout ageKevin Dodd50
  • WorkloadKevin Dodd50
  • RAS × productionKevin Dodd100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kevin Dodd
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jonathan Woodard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kevin Dodd
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    19 boards have him at mean rank #37; model has him #117 — a 80-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Jonathan Woodard
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #226 by JAX in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #395; model has him #143 — a 252-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kevin DoddJonathan Woodard· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kevin Dodd

Draftanomics projects Kevin Dodd (age 23.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #117 (range #110-#124, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #37 and the model won't take him before #117 — a 80-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Jonathan Woodard

Draftanomics projects Jonathan Woodard (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #122-#164, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #226 by JAX in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 252 spots ahead of the room (board #143 vs consensus #395) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.